You've heard of Justin Verlander 2013 before. The best pitcher in Detroit history has had his share of mechanical issues this year. He's still an All Star pitcher, but he's also been less efficient this year. What do we make of him?
- 3.50 ERA
- 3.23 FIP
- 3.64 xFIP
- 3.69 SIERA
What should we expect going forward? Is Verlander going to be better, the same, or continue to decline? Well, the signals are mixed. Since that awful start in Boston that made me want to pull my fingernails off, he's gone 2-1, 2.17 over four starts. However, over that span he's had just a 15/10 K/BB ratio and has given up 3 home runs. So basically, while he's been underperforming his peripherals all season, Justin has massively outperformed his peripherals over his last 4 starts. Weird.
Of course, we could also play "The Porcello Game" and take out that other awful start that made me want to pull my fingernails off in Texas. If we take out that 8 run, 8 out game, Verlander's ERA is 2.99. Hooray! Unfortunately, we are still left with a pitcher who's peripherals are out of whack.
Justin's K/9 is 8.93 (rapidly dropping over the past month, I might add.) This is highly respectable and pretty much near his career norms. However, because he's yielding more baserunners, it becomes rather clear that Verlander isn't striking out as high a percentage. His 23.3% K rate is his lowest since, again, 2008. Obviously, the "something is up with Verlander" talk, while overblown, has some truth to it.
My thinking? JV has probably lost grip of his mechanics briefly, and is working to correct it as fast as he can. I bet the All Star Break will prove beneficial for one of baseball's most taxed arms. Verlander will soon resume striking out batters at a 25% rate and finish the year with an ERA of about 3.25 and 18 wins.
Hopefully, that's good enough for everyone's expectations.
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