Jim Leyland vs. Pythag

Following up yesterday's post, a reason for angst among Tigers fans lies in their Pythagorean record. Bill James' formula for "true" team success pegs Detroit as a 46-28 team. This is four wins better than the team's actual 42-32 record. Is this a recurring issue during the Jim Leyland tenure?

Leyland has managed the Tigers since 2006. Over that span, he's had some good seasons and some bad ones. Let's breakdown his record versus Pythag since then using the basic formula provided by Fangraphs..

(Pythagorean record in parentheses)

2006: 95-67 (97-65)

2007: 88-74 (90-72)

2008: 74-88 (78-84)

2009: 86-77 (81-82)

2010: 81-81 (82-80)

2011: 95-67 (89-73)

2012: 88-74 (87-75)

2013: 42-32 (46-28)

We find that over the course of his tenure in Detroit, Jim Leyland's teams have underperformed Pythagorean expectations by a whopping one game. I suppose if one wanted to use this as an anti-Jim argument they could, but if Detroit reels off three straight close wins over Anaheim one would look silly. 

Furthermore, if we look over Leyland's last five seasons, Detroit overpeforms their "true" talent by seven games. Is Leyland getting better with age? Is it just statistical noise? Who knows. However, by seeing that Jim is an average tactician, this should make us appreciate how valuable he is to the team when coupled with how well he handles his players' egos. Keep up the good work, Jimmy.